Case Studies

Mandates, anonymized. Outcomes, measured.

Client identities are protected by standing confidentiality terms. Each study below is drawn from a completed engagement.

Sovereign DebtWest African Republic

Restructuring strategy ahead of a Common Framework negotiation

Challenge
A mid-sized sovereign entering creditor committee negotiations with an unconsolidated liability inventory and no defensible sustainability narrative.
Approach
Built a debt-sustainability analysis aligned with IMF/World Bank DSF methodology, mapped every creditor class and instrument, and prepared precedent-based comparator packages for committee negotiations.
Outcome
The ministry entered negotiations with a unified position; the resulting MoU treatment was benchmarked against the strongest comparators in its peer group.
Blended FinanceRegional Energy Sponsor

Making a 300 MW energy program bankable for private capital

Challenge
A commercially sound power program stalled: institutional investors declined merchant offtake and convertibility risk that no single instrument covered.
Approach
Structured a capital stack with a first-loss tranche sized to the residual untransferable risk, layered political risk insurance over event-driven exposures, and negotiated a partial credit guarantee for construction phase.
Outcome
The program closed with institutional debt participation for the first time; the de-risking layer was smaller than the original ask and more credible to investors.
Geopolitical StrategyInstitutional Investor

Regulatory shift forecast across three ECOWAS markets

Challenge
A multi-country investment thesis depended on regulatory trajectories that official communications did not yet reflect.
Approach
Embedded regional analysts tracked personnel movement, off-cycle budget signals, and administrative posture across the three markets over two quarters, producing forward-looking shift forecasts.
Outcome
The client repositioned ahead of two of three predicted shifts, avoiding a licensing bottleneck that caught competitors a year later.
Macro-FiscalMinistry of Finance

Interim-period strategy during a prolonged restructuring

Challenge
Two years between committee formation and MoU threatened arrears accumulation and domestic market credibility.
Approach
Designed an interim financing discipline covering domestic bondholder behavior, SOE creditor perimeter, and arrears controls, with a quarterly narrative update for committee members.
Outcome
The debtor entered final negotiations with a smaller, cleaner problem — and a committee that trusted the numbers presented to it.

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